Freedom from what? Or should it be from whom?

Seven years has passed, and I'm still trying to figure out what Ukraine has achieved in that relatively short time, though still more than a third as many years that the nation has been independent. This commentary may very well be disjointed in many ways, just as the people of Ukraine have been for so many years. Regardless, I and many Ukrainians will state that the Orange (R)evolution, and that short period of the nation's short history, was one of the nation's greatest and positive moments. Clearly the benefactor of the Orange (R)evolution, Viktor Yushchenko, enacted one of those symbolic decrees on the Day of Freedom on November 19, 2005 just short of a year of the first anniversary of an event that caught the eye of the world, that clearly could never be guaranteed in the future.

For many who have a relationship to the events of seven years ago, it is difficult to comprehend, that on November 22, 2011, that all that many could see around the downtown core of Kyiv was special divisions of militia units on what is dubbed the day of Freedom? Clearly there are many people who are just as disenchanted with the current regime, a regime and a direction which many opposed seven years ago – not for who they were as a political group backing then presidential candidate Yanukovych, but for the methods which they were using to try to come to power. I'm certain, that those who were on the central square, known as Maydan, in Kyiv on November 22, 2011, are many of those same people who were there seven years ago, and they are clearly not those who voted the current regime in. Though one must also remember the old adage, governments don't get elected in, they get voted out.

On the morning of November 22, 2004, after a very short night sleep and dealing with many international observers as well as journalists, and prompted by a phone call I headed down to meet a good friend and to be introduced to Judge Bohdan Futey by my friend, my Kum, the father of my godchildren. We stood in front of the Post Office on Maydan. We had a short conversation of what could happen in the next day as well as the days to follow, but none of us could have with any certainty predicted of what stood before us.

As a Canadian of Ukrainian extraction, who had already spent some time in Ukraine and working on Ukrainian issues for most of my life, I felt that somehow I would play my part. Be it lesser or greater, I did not know, though I think that all of those who I knew and encountered during the course of what peacefully transpired over the next two months, and who were more involved than I, can only be the judges of my contribution.

Like many of those individuals I had befriended long before and during what came to became known as the Orange (R)evolution became disenchanted with the inactivity of the President who came to power, Viktor Yushchenko, and the squabbles which he was having with his now incarcerated, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. However, the methods employed through the court to forbid the assembly on Maydan on November 22 of this year are as absurd as those taken in the winter of 2000 after the “cassette scandal” of 2000, while Maydan was beginning its transformation into the Globus Shopping complex; back then it didn't surprise me that such a post-soviet mentality and a total lack of understanding of the principle of the right to peaceful assembly took place. This year the court order had to do with the city's New Year Tree, which is do to be officially opened on December 17. Somehow, I fail to realize how the assembly of such a structure requires nearly a complete month to be assembled. Clearly, just an additional incompetency of the municipal administration.

As I viewed posted pictures on the Internet of the number of Berkut special forces on Kyiv's main thoroughfare, Khreshchatyk on November 22, I could only think of one thing. Ukraine, under the current administration has taken at least a dozen steps back from where it was seven years ago. However, even before this, in reviewing the situation and statements of individuals who truly have done their time for the Ukrainian cause, I am even more impelled to state that the only way things will change for the better in Ukraine is through a “New Revolution”, and if necessary it will be a revolution and not an evolution as has happened in the past.

Seven years ago I was there, on Khreshchatyk. I spent many hours and days there! It seemed like an eternity at times! Would there be an onslaught of troops against those peacefully protesting. Now, seven years later, the possibility of protest is becoming less realistic than it was, even under Kuchma.

Above I mentioned the term, “New Revolution”. It is not by chance, but more due to the historical events which have transpired. Ukraine to this day has not had a revolution, but rather an evolution. One which has unfortunately done little for the people of Ukraine with the exception of providing a segment of that population to believe it can change things; while at the same time it has allowed for those with capital to become wealthier and to conduct a variety of anti-national policies which diminish the rights as well as aspirations of the nation's citizens.

Political capture in Ukraine is a reality. It has become an obsession of those in power, not only to ingratiate themselves as much as possible, but also to ensure that they become the “untouchables” without any accountability. This is clear with the new election law which has no mechanism for the accountability of deputies to their constituents.

What will transpire when the populace realizes that once again their votes have been stolen in the upcoming elections? How will they react? Will they even have an opportunity to do so as the current regime steps up its physical authority as it has shown by its absurd use of the court system, and show of physical might?

On the Day of Freedom, there was one image that stood out a great deal regarding among so many others. It was a young girl on the shoulders of her father holding a sign which read, “The Government is Shit”. As an American friend of mine commented and I must paraphrase this. So what would they, the Berkut, who could see this do? I guess we will have to wait and see.

Maybe, a real Revolution awaits?

In my opinion, the current regime only understands force and strength and they seem to rely on that dangerous card much more frequently and much more assertively than any of the previous Ukrainian governments have done. This in turn makes it much more likely that the very same card could soon bounce back to them, and when in does, no one can really tell how the rest of it all could play out. One can only hope that, come a critical point, that those young men who at this time simply obey orders, will be governed by at least some sort of common sense or by some level of attachment to their own nation - a nation that is slowly but surely reaching the limits of what it can tolerate. The people of Ukraine have a government that is has been captured by the controlling interests of a few, they will have to call the shots on how to deal with them and it will have to be their choice. Lets hope that in whatever the path they choose that they have will find alliances from the young men who have been sworn in to protect the nation and its people, and who have some semblance of morality and believe in serving their country and not just the figureheads who are are now in control.



Vasyl Pawlowsky Independent Consultant

An orange carrot called Euro-2012

Before the early winter of 2004 Ukraine was nothing but a grey smudge somewhere on the periphery of a contemporary Europe. It was a country with a developing democracy and with its fair share of problems as it tried to shake off the legacy of the Former Soviet Union, but when the Orange (R)evolution took place, the world started to take notice. As a result of the bloodless revolution, a revolution of smiling cooperative Ukrainians, wanting to build a better nation, one based on democratic principles, Ukraine was offered a carrot. That carrot was the Euro-2012 Football Championships which it is to co-host with its Western neighbor Poland; a country that through a great deal of shock therapy reformed itself from being a key member of the Warsaw Pact into a functioning democracy.

However, Ukraine somehow, to this day, even twenty years of independence has not gone through the reforms necessary in order to become a truly functioning democracy. The unlawful trial, unethical detainment and the flimsily grounded, yet brutally enforced verdict on former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, announced by a clearly in-the-pocket judge, is just one such incident - prominent because of Tymoshenko’s high international profile, yet very indicative of the unmistakable ruthlessness of the current regime.

“In Tymoshenko’s trial, however, many elements of Stalin’s grotesque legal charades are present: a near-hysterical prosecutor, a compliant judge, a ruler who washed his hands of the affair like Pontius Pilate.” wrote Nikita Khrushchev’s great granddaughter, Nina Khrushcheva in the The Daily Beast on October 10 a day before the verdict was announced.

Yanukovych’s master of spin Hanna Herman had at some point stated that the president was “not aware of the charges brought against Tymoshenko” and annoyed by this, but how will his annoyance play out? Particularly if one takes the time to ask oneself: If despite all the heavy international condemnation of this trial, and despite all the looming political and economic consequences, for a regime that appears so busy trying to build some sort of legitimate image abroad, the verdict was still followed through on, in full force, without even blinking, then one can only speculate about the level of ruthlessness which this government goes about with its daily business when the rest of the world is not watching, and Ukraine is not under the microscope?

Earlier, if the modus operandi by those who came to power was divide and conquer, now it is clearly seek and destroy, using any possible means. It appears that at times principles of revenge are placed higher than any political or even economic rational. Although, there is very well grounded political and economic rational behind eliminating from politics the regime’s Number 1 opponent.

So who will the regime’s next opponent be? Maybe when the consequences of this show trail are felt by Ukraine’s politicos, they will with the restrained brutality of Stalin, put an end to the political careers of the prosecutor and judge in the case as suggested by Nina Khrushcheva? After all they were nothing but useful-idiots employed by the regime to eliminate the opposition, they too are expendable.

But will there be consequences? Yanukovych’s advisors are certain that Ukraine’s strategic importance is too big for Europe to simply switch to hard measures of boycotts, travel bans, account freezes, etc. The officials in Kyiv think that they can manage to balance their instances of unconcealable lawlessness, corruption and brutality, with their efforts to appear democratic and progressive by appeasing the West with select deals and partnerships. Getting ready for Euro 2012 in the most pompous way possible, is one of these efforts.

Yet the common everyday good people of Ukraine have nothing to do with the Euro-2012 Football Championship. Most eek their way through life based on principles that are so far away from the current occupiers of government seats. In speaking to a friend yesterday, his mother’s pension was recently reduced again, and that considering that the average pension in Ukraine is somewhere around 100 dollars a month, in a country where prices for everyday necessities are topping those in the West. In short, any standard of life is unthinkable, and it is a continuously spiraling downward.

Meanwhile Deputy Prime Minister Borys Kolesnikov is touting the economic viability of the country and how all the stadiums and infrastructure for Euro-2012 as such an economic accomplishment. An economic accomplishment that was presented to the people of Ukraine as one that would be financed by foreign investors. Now who can tell me how much direct foreign investment has come into Ukraine because of the wonderful and honorable game of football? Probably not a single nickel! The roads, airports and many other things were all things that should have been taking place regardless of whether Ukraine was hosting Euro-2012, they were things that had to be done and now those in power are doing them in such a way that they can ingratiate themselves to the tune of at least 30% of each project’s value.

For example, let’s take a look at the reconstruction of the Olympic stadium in the nation’s capital. By the best estimates of any professional in the industry, the project should have cost at the very most 300 million dollars, but when you hear that it cost close to 550 million dollars, one has to start seriously wondering. So where did 250 million dollars vanish to? These are monies that could have gone toward pensions, improving the state of health care or education?

The boycotting of the Euro-2012 should be just one of many different repercussions of the grotesqueness of the current state of affairs in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress is calling on the Government of Canada to “send a clear message to President Yanukovych,” however; the Government of Canada better brush up on its lexicon before sending that message, or it, like the many other messages that were intended to be shots fired across the bow will have no effect. Warnings are not enough for these types, as I tried to make clear earlier, they don’t understand diplo-speak. Those shots should not be going over the bow, but actually hitting it, because unless all members of the regime of Yanukovych feel the economic and political consequences on their own skin, Ukraine will continue to slip further away from democracy.

The powers that be in Ukraine think they are entitled to hosting the Euro-2012 championships. They are not entitled; Ukraine was given a carrot for a job that was ongoing in terms of developing a democracy. Under the current regime that democracy has been floundering in many different areas. The common every day people of Ukraine will only be empowered by a complete and ultimate boycott of the Potemkin Euro-2012 village that those in charge are trying to take away from the people that enabled the carrot in the first place.


Vasyl Pawlowsky Independent Consultant
This commentary was first published on the Ukraine Business Online site.

An Orange Present During a Blue (R)evolution

A few days ago after a very long wait I receive a book from an Australian photographer friend of mine that is to be delivered to Victor Yushchenko.

The book is entitled A Portrait of a Revolution and its author Bohdan Warchomij has done an excellent job in capture that moments of history that has come to be known as the Orange Revolution. As I leafed through the pages of the non-standard format of the book, I could almost smell the fires that were burning on Khreschatyk over two years ago.

Many of the photographs from what I gather, and due to the format of the book, and knowing the author personally, were shot using a Hasellblad panoramic camera. The images are crisp and clear and full of contrasts - contrasts between the people and their environment, prior to and during the Orange Revolution.

If you were in Ukraine during that historic moment, you will surely want to pick this wonderful coffee table book up. It will surely bring back memories, and has captured in time the spirit of the Ukrainian people.